🤑247capital #47 | $PCH III $HIMS
🤑247capital #47 | $PCH III $HIMS
Follow-Up, Read of the week | MOI Global Stock Brothers | $PCH III, Tweets of the Week ...
Hi Everyone 👋,
Welcome to the #47 issue of 247capital — your weekly source of Investment Research. If you are new, you can join my email list here, or👇🏻
Please hit the heart button ❤️ if you like today’s letter and reply with any feedback.
The follow-up to former Issues
Below you’ll find the overview of all bought shares since Issue 1 and the current state. Please keep in mind we’re here for the long run. 5-10 years horizon at least.
$TAP - bought at $44.95 - Issue 1
Closed the week at $51.69 (up 14.99%)🔥
💰$0.68 dividends
$GEO - bought at $5.79 - Issue 7
Closed the week at $7.87 (up 35.92%)🔥
XTRA:DFV - bought at 12.96€ - Issue 8
Closed the week at 10.48€ (down 19.13%)❄️
READ - bought at 39.25SEK - Issue 12+24
Closed the week at 16.23SEK (down 58.64%)❄️
$HIMS - bought at $8.28 - Issue 12+25
Closed the week at $5.29 (down 36.11%)❄️
THG - bought at 373.50pc - Issue 32+36
Closed the week at 180.30 (down 51.72%)❄️
$HIMS could go under $5 this week. If you are still liquid, this could be a good opportunity. The actual consensus price target is $11.43.
Portfolio News of the week
$HIMS - Hims & Hers Health launches 2 products for women experiencing hair loss. Topical Finasteride & Minoxidil Spray and Oral Spironolactone.
Hair loss is common in women. In fact, about 50% of women experience noticeable hair loss, according to the Cleveland Clinic.
Hair loss is more common in women over 40 and for those who just had a baby. It also impacts women going through chemotherapy and those going through menopause.
Read of the week
MOI Global, The Membership Community of Intelligent Investors, published the Best Ideas 2022.
Stock Brothers - PotlatchDeltic Corporation | $PCH III
PotlatchDeltic Corporation - $PCH III
Hello to all!!!
Today as promised, is the 3rd and last part regarding PCH. I hope all subscribers enjoy reading it.
5. Political or social upheavals must not threaten the plant's existence.
If there is a trade boycott between the US and Canada, PCH will benefit. No wood from Canada means less competition for PCH and thus higher prices. This, in turn, increases profits. Since PCH is a REIT, dividends would also increase.
Forest fires and beetle infestations such as the "mountain pine beetle" could lower timber production in Canada. This would at least keep the price of lumber from plummeting again. Socially, wood is an uncritical and ecological product.
6. The essential point for me was at the end: no total loss !!!
What could happen in the worst case? (Here are some horror conceptions)
6.1 The forest burns down.
The land would be preserved and could be reforested.
6.2 A significant economic crisis
A large percentage of houses in the USA are built with wood, in contrast to large parts of Germany with solid house construction. As a result, renovations in the USA require a large amount of wood to restore the houses to their original condition.
There is no cheaper way to build a house than in timber construction. Thus, especially in times of crisis, no luxury object is in demand, but simplicity and functionality.
The last real estate bubble in the USA has shown that the market will recover long-term. See above (3. point).
6.3 The product “timber” could be entirely replaced by another building material.
Due to the worldwide focus on sustainability, ecology, environment, nature, and emission-free products, wood is more in demand than ever. So I see less of a threat here than the emergence of a vast moat.
6.4 Management mistakes with fatal consequences
Here, the company's history of over 100 years speaks for consistency and foresight. The wood industry is also not to be compared with the tech industry. A tree does not grow faster if you say grow faster.
It is a natural product planted and harvested in a kind of generational contract. Plain language:
The logger who plants the tree will not live to see the harvest. (in his professional life)
6.5 Dependence on buyers/customers
In bad times (low timber prices), Companies such as PCH can take less timber. The farmer may be in financial straits after a disaster year for annual crops such as wheat, corn, soybeans, potatoes, etc. The forest industry has an advantage if the tree is not cut down but left standing; it grows and increases in value.
The taller and thicker the trunk, the more boards. So the pressure from the market is to be relieved somewhat with lower logging volumes. Comparable to curbing oil production when oil prices are low.
Conclusion:
I don't see a scenario that could result in a total breakdown. However, an entry scenario is interesting for me at around $53/54.
The quarterly dividend of $0.44 equates to an annual dividend of $1.76. At $53.3, this would give a dividend yield of 3.3% on capital employed. As always, all of this is not a buy recommendation, nor is it a sell recommendation.
As always, these are my thoughts, which I am happy to share with you.
In the end, I would like to thank all readers for their loyalty and the many positive, positive messages to me. This feedback motivates me a lot!!!
You are of course welcome to write to me. I will read every message. We will all not slacken in 2022 but keep the markets and world events firmly in view.
Talk to you soon, Florian
Quote of the Week
Know what you own and why you own it.
— Peter Lynch
Tweets of the week
Bonus for my brother 😉
5 points of the week - From the book “100 to 1 in the stock market.”
Curated by the Big Investor Blog:
In the stock market and poker, the money tends to move from stupid to intelligent hands.
Fallacies in using the P.E. independently:
Earnings are not as easily comparable as prices. In many ways, purely comparing earnings is like comparing cows vs. horses.
Quality and composition of earnings are vital in drawing effective comparisons using the P.E.
Just PE can be as deceptive as drinking martinis.
Just as fastening a seatbelt can save your life, scrupulous attention to the change in the quality of earnings can save you your fortune.
The best safeguard against the sleigh of hand booking keeping is nothing to do with it or with the men who practice it.
The public's greatest mistake is paying attention to the prices instead of the value.
Thanks for reading, and until next Monday,
Sebastian from 247capital
